Saturday, September 22, 2018

Sunday NFL Week 3 "Totals Talk"



A great source of NFL betting income is generated from playing the OVER/UNDER. Here's a look at some of the top totals plays on today's schedule

Keep an Eye On

-- Nine teams have watched the ‘over’ cash in each of their first two games while seven teams have watched the ‘under’ go 2-0.

-- It was noted in our Hot & Not Report that the four teams in the NFC East are 7-1 to the ‘under’ and it did double-count the Giants-Cowboys result from Week 2.

-- Fireworks are expected for a quarter of the games in Week 3 with four games having totals listed in the fifties. Week 2 had two games close in the 50s and the ‘over/under’ went 1-1. No games in Week 1 were in this range but a pair closed at 49 ½ and the same total result (1-1) occurred.

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 3 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

Green Bay at Washington: 47 ½ to 45
Chicago at Arizona: 40 to 38 ½
New England at Detroit: 50 to 54
Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay: 50 to 54

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 3 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Cincinnati at Carolina: 92% Over
New England at Detroit: 92% Over
N.Y. Giants at Houston: 85% Over
Oakland at Miami: 83% Over
Denver at Baltimore: 78% Over

Divisional Action

Tennessee at Jacksonville: The ‘over’ is on a 4-1 run in this series and last year’s ‘under’ result could be tossed out with the Jaguars resting players in Week 17. The Titans won that game 15-10. Tennessee has scored 20 in each of its first two games but injury concerns at quarterback could keep that production in the same neighborhood. The Jaguars have allowed just 12.7 points per game in their last seven games at home.

New Orleans at Atlanta: Nine of the last 10 encounters between the pair have seen totals in the fifties and this week’s number (53 ½) is in that range. The ‘over’ has gone 6-3-1 during this span and based on what we’ve seen from the Saints defense (33 PPG), it’s hard to imagine Atlanta not getting at least four scores at home. First road game for New Orleans and it averaged 25.7 PPG away from home last season. This Falcons defense was great last season and it showed in Week 1 at Philadelphia but the unit has been affected by two huge injuries (Deion Jones, Keanu Neal) and it showed last week by allowing 439 yards to Carolina.

NFC vs. AFC

Half of the 16 matchups in Week 3 are non-conference tilts. Looking above, you can see the ‘under’ has gone 4-2 in these games so far this season.

Indianapolis at Philadelphia: This is a tough game to handicap for a couple reasons. For starters, you have QB Carson Wentz returning for the Eagles on Sunday since injuring his knee last December and rust could certainly be a factor. Second, former Philadelphia offensive coordinator Frank Reich is the head coach for the Colts. Will his knowledge be able to temper the Birds?  The Philadelphia defense was great at home last season (12.4 PPG) and it held Atlanta to 12 points in the opener. While QB Andrew Luck has made a few mistakes (3 INTs) for the Colts, he’s almost back to his form and the Colts offense is ranked first in third down conversions (61%). Going back to the 2016 season, Indy has averaged 25.8 PPG in their last nine road games with Luck under center.


Cincinnati at Carolina: The Bengals have been a surprise so far at 2-0 and while the defense (23 PPG, 402.5 YPG) looks suspect, they’ve forced five turnovers through two games. The Cincy offense takes a hit with the loss of running back Joe Mixon but QB Andy Dalton appears confident for now. Including one win this season, the Panthers have captured six straight at home and the offense has averaged 27.5 PPG in those victories.

N.Y. Giants at Houston: The New York offense (14 PPG, 289.5 YPG) continues to be a mess and Houston’s hyped-up attack (18.5 PPG) under Deshawun Watson hasn’t been much better. Both clubs enter this game with 2-0 ‘under’ records and the Giants have seen the ‘under’ go 8-1 in their last nine regular season games.

Buffalo at Minnesota: Based on the odds for this matchup, the books are expecting Minnesota to win this game 28-12 over Buffalo. The Vikings have watched the ‘under’ go 6-2 in their last eight regular season games at home and no opponent has scored over 16 points during this span.

San Francisco at Kansas City: Andy Reid and the Chiefs have become the most popular team to back and it’s easy to see why. They lead the league in scoring (40 PPG) and they have to because their defense (32.5 PPG, 508 YPG) is one of the worst units in the league. While this total (55) is high, the ‘over’ is certainly doable based on the tendencies for Kansas City. The Chiefs have averaged 29 PPG in their last five home games versus NFC foes.

L.A. Chargers at L.A. Rams: The Bolts averaged 27.5 PPG in two road games versus NFC teams last season and more points expected here in this local rivalry. This is a big step up in class for the Chargers, who just faced two of the weakest defensive teams. The Rams defensive unit (6.5 PPG, 266 YPG) has been lights out albeit versus the Raiders and Cardinals. In two games versus AFC teams at home last season, the Rams only allowed a combined 16 points.

New England at Detroit: (See Below)

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay: (See Below)

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ went 2-1 in primetime games last week and through eight games, the low side owns a 5-3 mark on the season which includes Thursday’s outcome between the Browns and Jets. Home teams have won six of those contests and a visitor hasn’t won since the road teams (Jets, Rams) swept the double-header on Monday Night Football in Week 1.

SNF – New England at Detroit: A Patriots-Over combination on SNF would be a disaster for the house and the books are hoping former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia can rally his new club to an upset. You might be surprised to know that Patricia and the Lions (347.5 YPG) have the better defense than the Patriots (402.5 YPG). New England was diced up by the Jaguars (480 yards) on the road last week and they made Blake Bortles (376 yards, 4 TDs) look like Tom Brady. Detroit is on an 8-2 ‘over’ run its last 10 games at Ford Field, which was helped by Lions attack (25.7 PPG). Make a note that the Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 in their last six games against NFC opponents and they’ve scored 30-plus in four of those games, which includes their last two Super Bowl results.

MNF – Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay: The opening number (50) was quickly pushed up and it appears that bettors are certainly overreacting to what we’ve seen in the first two weeks. Tampa Bay has turned some heads but they’ve done it with big plays and you wonder what happens when the Buccaneers are forced to move the sticks. The Steelers were lit up at home last week to the Chiefs, who hold a slight lead over Tampa Bay (10-9) with big passing plays (25-plus yards) this season. As bad as both defensive units have looked, you would have to think that Tampa Bay (30.5 PPG) or Pittsburgh (31.5 PPG) will improve as the season progresses. Make a note that including the tie at Cleveland in Week 1, the Steelers have gone 7-1-1 in their last 9 road games and the defense (15.7 PPG) has been very solid during this span. And as great as Tampa Bay QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has played through two games, he’s 0-5 in five career starts against Pittsburgh and his teams only averaged 14.4 PPG.

Fearless Predictions

A couple clear-cut winners were upended by the Jets-Dolphins ‘over’ and turnovers clearly doomed that outcome. The teaser was shot at halftime of the Chiefs-Steelers game and that loser cost us juice ($10) on the weekend. Bankroll (+185) still positive and plenty of weeks left. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Cincinnati-Carolina 44
Best Under: Oakland-Miami 44 ½
Best Team Total: Over 17 ½ N.Y. Giants

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Under 52 ½ Green Bay-Washington
Under 46 Chicago-Arizona
Over 46 ½ New England-Detroit

Friday, September 21, 2018

College Football Game of the Week: Alabama vs. Texas A&M




#405 Texas A&M +26/61 vs. #406 Alabama  (3:30 PM ET Saturday, September 22)

Alabama coach Nick Saban has never lost to a former assistant and looks to keep that mark intact when the top-ranked Crimson Tide host Jimbo Fisher and No. 22 Texas A&M in an SEC battle on Saturday. Fisher served as LSU offensive coordinator under Saban from 2000-04 and aims to dent Saban's 12-0 mark against former pupils.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (2-1, 0-0 SEC): Fisher fell to Saban in last year's season opener when Alabama beat Florida State 24-7 and now will try to solve the vaunted Alabama defense with junior running back Trayveon Williams (SEC-leading 399 rushing yards, four touchdowns) and sophomore quarterback Kellen Mond (824 yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions). "He's doing a really nice job right now, playing really good football," Fisher said of Mond. "He's playing smart football. That's what's got me excited. He's making plays all up and down the field, but he's playing good, smart football." Senior linebacker Otaro Alaka has a team-best 16 tackles while senior defensive end Landis Durham has recorded a team-leading 3.5 tackles for loss.


Alabama WR DeVonta Smith
ABOUT ALABAMA (3-0, 1-0): The Crimson Tide are averaging 56.7 points and 544.7 yards per game after trampling Ole Miss 62-7 last Saturday in their SEC opener. Sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has completed 72 percent of his passes for 646 yards and eight touchdowns, while regularly hitting big plays with sophomore receivers Jerry Jeudy (11 catches for 287 yards and six touchdowns) and DeVonta Smith (10 catches for 204 yards with one score). Junior cornerback Saivion Smith, junior safety Shyheim Carter and sophomore safety Xavier McKinney all have returned interceptions for touchdowns while junior safety Deionte Thompson leads the team with two picks. Alabama has won five straight meetings and holds an 8-2 series lead. The Crimson Tide has not only scored 50 or more points in each of their first three games but they've also topped 500 yards of total offense in all three games.

*We're off and running this weekend. We delivered on Thursday with Tulsa and Temple UNDER and scored again on Friday as Central Florida routed Florida Atlantic. Now it's Alabama and Texas A&M in our "Game of the Day". Get it now, just $14.99 through PayPal.


Wednesday, September 19, 2018

College Football Preview: Tulsa and Temple in Thursday Battle

Shamari Brooks leads Tulsa against Temple
*Courtesy of Vegas Insider

This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes out of the American Athletic Conference with a pair of 1-2 squads facing off in what will be a key win towards bowl eligibility for the victor. Tulsa and Temple haven’t had the September starts they envisioned but both still have a shot at a successful season.

Here is a look at this week’s Thursday night game to kick off the fourth big weekend of college football.

Matchup: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Temple Owls
Venue: At Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 20, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: Temple -7½, Over/Under 55½
Last Meeting: 2017, Temple (-5½) 43, at Tulsa 22

After winning the AAC title in 2016 Temple lost head coach Matt Rhule to Baylor and hired Geoff Collins, who had been the defensive coordinator at Florida the previous two years. Last season the Owls slipped from the back-to-back 10-4 seasons they had in 2015 and 2016 but still managed a 7-6 season. Temple beat Tulsa on the road in the regular season finale to reach 6-6 before beating Florida International in the Gasparilla Bowl, all things considered a fairly successful first season with the coaching transition plus the loss of longtime quarterback Phillip Walker, a four-year starter that is the all-time passing leader for the Owls.

There were some important players that graduated for Temple last season, notably in the receiving corps but expectations were elevated with the Owls considered by many the favorite in the AAC East. The offense gained a spark when Frank Nutile took over at quarterback last season and the top rushers from last season returned along with several key starters on a defense that has been very effective in recent years.

Temple opened the season with a pair of home games and lost both games, falling 19-17 (-14½) to FCS Villanova and 36-29 (-4) to Buffalo. On its own neither loss was egregious as Villanova gave Temple a great battle early last season and is one of the better FCS programs. Buffalo meanwhile is considered one of the top MAC teams is off to a promising 3-0 start as it could be a more reasonable loss by season’s end.

Nutile struggled with four interceptions before being injured late in the Buffalo game. He may be healthy enough to return in the near future but he may not get his job back at Temple was rejuvenated last week under sophomore Anthony Russo who played well in the team’s 35-14 (+16) upset win at Maryland. The Owls took a 21-7 lead at halftime even with Russo throwing a pick-6 the other way. Early in the second half Russo hit a 47-yard touchdown pass and the Owls even survived a blocked punt returned for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to hold on for a 21-point win. Temple’s defense allowed just 195 yards and no offensive touchdowns as the Owls can feel confident heading into the conference season.


Tulsa has had a roller coaster run in now four seasons under Philip Montgomery, who was hired in 2015 after leading the Baylor offense under Art Briles. He inherited a 2-10 team and went bowling in year one, nearly upsetting Virginia Tech in the Independence Bowl to finish 6-7. In 2016 the Hurricane delivered a 10-3 campaign with a dominant bowl win. Last season everything went wrong as Tulsa inversed its record to just 2-10. A closer looks reveals a lot of narrow losses but also a major decline statistically on both sides of the ball.


Tulsa has decent returning experience and was universally projected for a season of improvement this season. How much Tulsa can improve remains to be seen. After being tested but winning 38-27 (-13) against FCS Central Arkansas in the opener, the Hurricane delivered a valiant comeback bid at Texas, losing by seven 28-21 (+21) despite falling behind 21-0 at halftime. Last week Tulsa had a big measuring stick game against Sun Belt power Arkansas State and came up short with a 29-20 (-1½) loss at home. Three turnovers were a factor as an interception return touchdown in the third quarter was a big blow ahead of Tulsa climbing back within seven points in the fourth quarter.

Luke Skipper was erratic as a freshman last season, starting six games including the upset win over Houston. He has been more accurate so far this season and already has more touchdown passes but he also has three interceptions after throwing only four in 127 attempts last season. His yards per attempt average is also down to 6.9 compared to 9.0 last season. Facing quality competition has been a factor and the challenge will be great this week with Temple featuring a reputation as a strong pass defense in recent years. Shamari Brooks leads Tulsa with 310 yards rushing so far this season as the Hurricane keep the ball on the ground almost twice as often as they throw.

The Tulsa defense has looked capable after allowing 37.5 points per game last season no foe has reached 30 against the Hurricane this season. Now 1-2 Tulsa is at a critical juncture in the season with three of the next four games on the road and the lone home game a difficult October game with South Florida. Tulsa isn’t likely to be favored in any of the next four games as bowl hopes could be extinguished without an upset along the way.

Skipper didn’t play in last season’s game as Tulsa saw a 7-0 lead a few minutes into the game disappear. Temple led 31-13 at the half and sealed the game with a punt return touchdown late in the third quarter in a 43-22 win. Temple had a 451-369 edge in yards with three Tulsa turnovers. Tulsa did rush for 5.8 yards per carry and 318 yards against a Temple defense that had good season numbers against the run as only Notre Dame ran for more yards against the Owls last season. Behind Chad President and Will Hefley Tulsa completed only six passes in the game while having two interceptions however. Nutile was sharp with one of his best games completing 20 of 28 passes with three touchdowns.

Up next Temple has another opportunity vs. a major conference team visiting Boston College and the Owls have a very tricky AAC road schedule this season playing at Navy, at UCF, and at Houston as it will be critical to take care of business at home. With a limited margin for error the rest of the way after 1-2 starts for both programs, this game could feel like a postseason elimination game already in September.

Historical Trends: 

-- Temple has won the two recent meetings between these teams with wins in 2014 and 2017.

-- Tulsa won both meetings in 1987 and 1988 for a split in four games both S/U and ATS.

-- Tulsa is only 6-13 S/U on the road under Montgomery since 2015 but 14-5 ATS including 12-3 ATS as a road underdog and 5-1 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 10 points.

-- With a pair of losses already this season Temple is just 3-5 S/U and 2-6 ATS at home under Collins since 2017 though going back to 2014.

-- Temple is 17-10 S/U and 16-11 ATS in home games.

-- Temple has failed to cover in five games in a row as a home favorite and is just 6-9-1 ATS as a single-digit home favorite going all the way back to 1998.


*Grab my Thursday night winner on Tulsa vs. Temple. Just $14.99 through PayPal.

Monday, September 17, 2018

College Football: Early Look at Week 4 Action

Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa leads Alabama against Texas A&M

College Football Week 4: Games to Watch

The current college football season may only be three weeks old, but it has already delivered a ton of very surprising results. There are a few teams who are delivering exactly what we expected from them, with the Alabama Crimson Tide at the top of that list, while others are seeing their season sink like a stone in the very early going.

Some clear favorites have already emerged, with a gap already starting to open between the Top 4 teams and the rest of the chasing pack.

Week 4 is going to deliver another great batch of games, so let’s take a closer look at just some of the big matchups set for this coming Saturday, as well, all the betting odds, props and futures provided by YouWager.eu.

No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers

There were some concerns that Georgia might see a bit of a drop off this year after losing so many players to the NFL draft, but they may actually be better now than they were at this stage last season. They have a bit of a tricky one ahead of them on Saturday, as they head to Missouri to face an unbeaten Tigers team who know how to put points on the board, it will be up to the Georgia defense to slow down the Tigers and prevent turning this thing into a shootout. This is a potential trap game for the Bulldogs that will require them to be totally focused.


No. 22 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide

The defending champions have been in devastating form through the first two weeks of the season, with that potential quarterback controversy now looking totally foolish. Tua Tagovailoa has made the position his own, tearing up the opposition in rather devastating style. The Crimson Tide are very much the favorites to win it all again this season, but this is a game that they will need to be careful of. The Aggies gave the Clemson Tigers a real scare a couple of weeks back, so let’s not totally sleep on this team.

No. 17 TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns

An in-state rivalry game is always fun to watch and this one is shaping up to be a beauty. TCU are coming into this one after taking their first loss of the season at the hands of the Ohio State Buckeyes, while the Longhorns are riding a bit of a high after laying a beating on the USC Trojans in Week 3. A win here for Texas would likely get them back into the top 25. While that is not reason for an all-out celebration, it would certainly be a step in the right direction for a rebuilding program.

No. 7 Stanford Cardinal at No. 20 Oregon Ducks

This is a crucial Pac-12 North Division battle, with both teams coming into Week 3 with a perfect 3-0 record. This will be the first conference game of the season for the Ducks, while it will be the second for Stanford. Given that the Cardinal have already played and won a conference game, this one takes on a higher level of importance, as the Ducks would suddenly find themselves very much behind the 8-ball with a loss to Stanford. This looks to be one of the best match-ups on the Week 3 college football calendar.

Sunday, September 16, 2018

Monday Night NFL Preview Seahawks vs. Bears



The Seahawks (0-1 SU, 0-0-1 ATS) entered the season opener by losing six consecutive road games in September as Seattle visited Denver. In spite of a grabbing a fourth quarter lead on a Russell Wilson 51-yard touchdown connection with Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks fell short in a 27-24 defeat to the Broncos. Seattle’s defense intercepted Case Keenum three times, but the Broncos outgained the Seahawks from a yardage standpoint, 470-306, while racking up 25 first downs compared to 13 by Seattle.

Seattle also committed three turnovers in the loss as Wilson was picked off twice, while running back Chris Carson lost a fumble in the third quarter. The second Wilson interception came on the final drive deep in Seattle territory, but the Seahawks’ quarterback also threw three touchdown passes, including one to former Broncos’ standout Brandon Marshall. The game sailed OVER the total of 42 ½, while Seattle pushed as a three-point underdog as the Seahawks last won a game in Week 16 of last season following an 0-4 preseason.


Khalil Mack leads Chicago against Seattle on MNF
The Bears (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) were on their way to an impressive road upset of the Packers last Sunday night by jumping out to a seemingly commanding 20-0 lead at Lambeau Field. It helped Chicago’s cause that Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers exited the game in the second quarter with a knee injury as newly acquired linebacker Khalil Mack returned an interception for a touchdown.

However, Rodgers returned in the third quarter and led Green Bay to an incredible 24-23 comeback victory, capped off by a 75-yard touchdown strike to Randall Cobb late in the fourth quarter. The Bears managed a cover as seven-point underdogs, but left Green Bay with a division loss as quarterback Mitchell Trubisky threw for 171 yards and rushed for a touchdown. Chicago has dropped 10 straight division contests dating back to December 2016, while last winning a road game against an NFC North opponent in 2015 at Green Bay.

SEATTLE DUE?

The task for Pete Carroll’s team on Monday night is try to not only pick up their first win of the season, but also halt this seven-game road losing streak in September. The Seahawks started 0-2 on the road last season (and 0-2 overall), but managed to win five of their next six games away from CenturyLink Field, while going 8-4 overall before a late meltdown prevented Seattle from the postseason.

Since Carroll arrived in Seattle back in 2010, the Seahawks have gone 0-2 through two road games twice (2011 and 2015), while the Seahawks are riding an 0-4 ATS streak in the last four Week 2’s dating back to 2014.

LAY THE POINTS AND RUN

In Trubisky’s rookie season, the Bears covered in all four opportunities as a home underdog, including outright victories over the Steelers and Panthers. However, Chicago struggled when laying points by posting a 1-2 SU/ATS record with the only victory coming against the winless Browns in Week 16. Dating back to the start of 2015, the Bears own a dreadful 1-7 SU/ATS mark as a favorite, including six outright losses at Soldier Field.

SERIES HISTORY

These two teams are meeting for the first time since 2015 when the Seahawks crushed the Bears, 26-0 as 16 ½-point favorites at CenturyLink Field. Seattle had started the season 0-2 before picking up that shutout, while limiting Chicago to 146 yards of offense. Wilson hooked up with Jimmy Graham for the only offensive touchdown, while Lockett returned the second half kickoff 103 yards for a touchdown.

Seattle has captured four of the past five matchups with Chicago since 2010, while making its first trip to Soldier Field since 2012. The Seahawks held off the Bears in overtime, 23-17 as three-point underdogs in December 2012, as the last four meetings in Chicago have sailed OVER the total.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The Seahawks have appeared on Monday night football once in each of the past seven seasons. Seattle has compiled a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in this stretch, while making its first road appearance on a Monday night since 2014 in a 10-point victory at Washington.

The Bears have split their last six Monday night contests since 2014, but interestingly enough have gone 1-3 at home in this stretch. Chicago was squeezed by Minnesota in the final seconds last season, 20-17 at Soldier Field in Trubisky’s first start, but the Bears barely covered as 3 ½-point underdogs.

LINE MOVEMENT

This line stayed pretty steady through most of the week since the Bears opened up as three-point favorites last Sunday night. However, Chicago is currently a 4 ½-point favorite at most books, while other books that have the Bears at -5. The total opened at 43 ½, but has slightly moved to 43 at many outlets.


*Our Monday Night play is locked and loaded and it's yours for just $9.99. PayPal gladly accepted. Enjoy the game. Enjoy the victory.


Saturday, September 15, 2018

NFL Week 2 Preview Packers-Vikings, Pats-Jags Top the Slate


by Vegas Insider

Vikings at Packers – 1:00 PM EST

An important NFC North game in Week 2 takes place at Lambeau Field with one extremely important question. Will Packers’ star quarterback Aaron Rodgers suit up or sit out after suffering a knee injury last week against Chicago? Green Bay seemed dead in the water after trailing, 20-0 and Rodgers carted off, but he returned in the second half to lead a monumental rally in a 24-23 victory.

Rodgers hopes to play to give the Packers an opportunity at not only a 2-0 overall record, but 2-0 mark inside the division. The last time Rodgers faced the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium last season, Minnesota linebacker Anthony Barr drilled the two-time league MVP into the ground and broke Rodgers’ collarbone. The end result of that hit was Rodgers being sidelined for nine games and the Vikings capturing the NFC North title.

Minnesota heads to Lambeau Field following a 24-16 victory over San Francisco in the season opener. The Vikings grabbed the cover as six-point favorites, while causing four 49ers’ turnovers, including a pick-six on San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Kirk Cousins put together a solid debut for Minnesota by throwing for 244 yards and two touchdowns as the Vikings improved to 10-1 in their last 11 home contests.

The Vikings compiled a 6-2 record on the highway last season, which included a 16-0 shutout of the Packers at Lambeau Field in December. Minnesota has won and covered four of the past five matchups in the series, including two of the past three trips to Green Bay. The UNDER has been a strong look in this series as well by hitting in seven of the last eight meetings.

Best Bet: Vikings 27, Packers 21

Eagles (-3, 44) at Buccaneers – 1:00 PM EST

It wasn’t pretty, but following a weather delay, the defending champion Eagles raised their Super Bowl banner and knocked off the Falcons last Thursday, 18-12. With Carson Wentz still sidelined, Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles overcame a subpar performance (19-of-34 for 117 yards and interception) to lift Philadelphia to its second low-scoring home win over Atlanta in 2018 after eliminating the Falcons in the second round last season.

The Eagles moved to 12-1 in their last 13 home contests, but travel to Florida this week to face a Buccaneers’ squad that shocked the Saints as 10 ½-point underdogs last week, 48-40. Ryan Fitzpatrick torched the New Orleans’ defense for 417 yards and four touchdown passes, while both Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson recorded at least 145 yards receiving and a total of three touchdown catches. Tampa Bay picked up its third consecutive opening day win, unfortunately the Bucs haven’t started 2-0 since 2010.


The Eagles have slumped to a 2-4 ATS record under Doug Pederson as a road favorite, but Philadelphia won six of eight games away from Lincoln Financial Field last season. The Bucs have covered in four of their past five opportunities as a home underdog since 2016, while the Eagles are traveling to Tampa Bay for the first time since 2013. In the last meeting in 2015 at the Linc, the Bucs steamrolled the Eagles, 45-17 as seven-point underdogs, led by Jameis Winston’s five touchdown passes.

Best Bet: Eagles 24, Buccaneers 17

Patriots (-1, 45) at Jaguars – 4:25 PM EST

Jacksonville nearly pulled off the upset of New England in the AFC Championship this past January, but fell apart in the second half of a 24-20 defeat. The Jaguars managed to cover as 7 ½-point underdogs, but missed out on the first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history, while Tom Brady hit Danny Amendola for a pair of touchdown tosses in the fourth quarter.

Fast forward eight months later and the two squads hook up again, this time at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. Both teams captured opening week wins, while the Jaguars won in Week 1 for the second straight year following a dry spell in openers from 2012 through 2016. The Jaguars held off the Giants last week, 20-15 as New York’s lone touchdown came on rookie Saquon Barkley’s 68-yard touchdown in the fourth. Jacksonville picked up the cover as three-point favorites, although running back Leonard Fournette left with a hamstring injury as the former LSU star is a game-time decision on Sunday.

The Patriots held off the Texans, 27-20 to barely cash as 6 ½-point favorites, although New England jumped out to a 21-6 halftime lead. Brady threw three touchdown passes in the first half to three different receivers, including an early hookup with tight end Rob Gronkowski, who finished with 123 yards receiving.

New England enters Sunday’s action riding a five-game winning streak in Week 2 action, while winning three of those games on the road by an average of 15.6 points per game. Jacksonville covered in five of seven opportunities as an underdog last season, while winning six of eight home contests. Brady has never lost to Jacksonville in his career in eight starts since 2003, including two victories at TIAA Bank Field.

Best Bet: Patriots 31, Jaguars 17

BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 1-0 this season)

UNDER 53 – Chiefs at Steelers

Easily drilled the UNDER last week between the Redskins and Cardinals and going that same route again this week. These two AFC rivals have played every season for the last four years and even twice in 2016. Five of those six matchups have finished UNDER the total, while the Chiefs have failed to bust 16 in the last three meetings. Yes, Patrick Mahomes was not under center for Kansas City in those games as the former Texas Tech standout threw four touchdown passes in last week’s 38-28 victory over the Chargers. However, Los Angeles was limited to 12 points in the first three quarters, while Pittsburgh held a 21-7 fourth quarter lead at Cleveland before the Browns scored two late touchdowns to ultimately tie the Steelers.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

Are the Bills really as bad as they looked last week in a 47-3 blowout loss to the Ravens? Buffalo returns home to host Los Angeles as the Chargers had high expectations placed on them heading into the season. The Lightning Bolts are 0-1 out of the gate after losing at Kansas City, but did rout the Bills last season by 30 points at home. Los Angeles opened as a 7 ½-point favorite at Buffalo this week, as rookie Josh Allen gets the start at quarterback for the Bills. Don’t be too fast to jump on the Chargers, as the Bolts have lost six of their last seven road September games.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The 49ers opened as three-point home favorites against the Lions after San Francisco lost at Minnesota in Week 1. However, that line skyrocketed to San Francisco laying six points following Detroit’s abysmal effort in last Monday’s blowout loss to the Jets. The Lions host the Patriots next Sunday night, as Detroit heads to the Bay Area off a 5-3 road record last season.

*Receive our NFL "Play of the Day' on the New England/Jacksonville showdown is just $19.99. Either this play wins, or you get the remainder of the NFL season for FREE.


Sunday NFL Week 3 "Totals Talk"

A great source of NFL betting income is generated from playing the OVER/UNDER. Here's a look at some of the top totals plays on to...