Monday, January 14, 2019

No Suprise: LeBron James is the most valuable NBA player when it comes to point spread

LeBron James is the ATS MVP
LeBron James is the most valuable NBA player when it comes to the point spread, even as the superstar who turned 34 this week plays in his 16th season. He has earned this consensus distinction, in fact, despite often being undervalued in a betting market that tends to overvalue All-Stars.
James has not played since Christmas Day, when he suffered a groin injury. The four-time MVP's absence reinforces just how complicated the process of adjusting point spreads can be. Players are not merely assessed a blanket numerical value; point spreads incorporate numerous variables.
Since April 12, 2015, James has missed a total of 20 games as a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Lakers. In those games, his team has posted a 3-17 record both overall and against the point spread. Though that is a relatively small sample size, it does speak to the giant void he leaves, given his versatility, his status as a team's offensive focus and his ability to fill up a stat sheet.
Though the market may adjust poorly in his absence, his teams are still overvalued when he does suit up. Last season, when James played every single game, the Cavaliers finished a putrid 29-50-3 ATS, which ranked fourth worst by any team over the past 20 seasons. This year, the Lakers entered Christmas Day 14-19 ATS, which ranked third worst of any team this season.
So far, the Lakers have managed LeBron's absence better than his former Cavaliers teams did. The Lakers are 2-2 ATS in the four games LeBron has missed, and they are actually outperforming the betting line by .625 points in those four games. That's a stark contrast from the final 16 games James missed for the Cavs, when his team under-performed against the point spread by an average of 10.938 points.
There isn't much comparison between the situations in Cleveland and Los Angeles. Even when LeBron suited up in every game for the Cavs in 2017-18, he had little support.
With a situation like the one the Lakers are facing, a team is more likely to employ new offensive sets and rotations to overcome a star's extended absence. With a single missed game, however, coaches typically maintain protocol and game plans.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
James has company in the top echelon. Giannis AntetokounmpoAnthony Davis and James Harden all make a similar impact on the point spread, especially in situations like Houston's with All-Star Chris Paul also sidelined. But even still, oddsmakers and bettors insist the value lies with the short-handed team.

Since losing Paul to a hamstring injury, the Rockets have won and covered six straight games, including last night's upset at Golden State. During this stretch, they were home underdogs twice and never favored by more than 4.5 points.
The Lakers lack the luxury of having a second All-Star. As the point spreads are adjusted more significantly in LeBron's absence, however, they have a smaller hill to climb. Time will tell whether his current running mates are simply undervalued, or if the Lakers' performance will start to trend more toward the distinct pattern LeBron's teams had during his Cleveland days.
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Monday, January 7, 2019

2019 College Football BCS Alabama vs. Clemson Part 5?

With Clemson-Alabama IV in the books, we can now turn our attention to the 2019 college football season. Naturally, those two teams are favored to win the national championship again.
Westgate released their odds following Monday night’s game, and there was little doubt who No. 1 and No. 2 would be. Ohio State comes in at No. 3 at 10-1.
Alabama has opened around 5-2 in year’s past, but is down to 3-2 this season. The Tide and Clemson are the only teams under 10-1, in fact only six teams have odds of less than 20-1.

2019 National Championship Futures Odds

*Clemson 9-5
Alabama 5-2
Ohio State 12-1
Georgia 12-1
Michigan 14-1
Oklahoma 15-1
Texas 20-1
Nebraska 25-1
Washington 25-1
Florida 25-1
Notre Dame 25-1

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Friday, January 4, 2019

Saturday, Jan. 5 College Basketball Action: Virginia vs. Florida State

Take #656 Virginia -9 over Florida State (3 PM ET Saturday, January 5)

The Virginia Cavaliers and Florida State Seminoles, who have a combined record of 24-1, square off in Charlottesville. Tip-off is set for 3 PM ET at John Paul Jones Arena where the Cavs are a -9 point favorite. The total is 130. Virginia took last season's lone meeting 59-55 at Florida State to square the all-time series at 24 wins apiece.

It’s been another banner year for the Atlantic Coast Conference which has four teams in the top 10. Second-ranked Virginia (12-0, 9-3 ATS, 7-0 home) remains one of the top defensive teams in the nation. But they’ve also shown they’re capable of scoring as well as witnessed by their 100-64 rout of Marshall on New Year’s Eve. Ninth-ranked Florida State (12-1, 5-7-1 ATS, 1-0 road) has won seven straight. This will be their first true road game since November 11 at Tulane.

Now for the trends. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Virginia and 19-3 to the low side in the past 22 meetings overall.

Florida State is 10-1 to the UNDER in its last 11 road games but 4-0 to the OVER in its last four overall. The Cavaliers are 4-1 to the UNDER in their last five at home and past five overall.

Virginia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven overall and 5-1 vs. the number in its past six home outings. Florida State is 4-1-1 ATS last six on the road but just 1-7 ATS in its past eight ACC games.

We enjoyed another winning night on Friday posting easy NBA winners with Boston and Milwaukee. Our only loss came on the College Hardwood as SMU just missed covering the spread.  We played the Mustangs -9.5, they won by 9. Those missed free throws will kill you every time, We're now 8-1-1 with our paid selections to the past three days.

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BHS2020 Pricing

Thursday, January 3, 2019

Friday, January 4 FREE NBA Selection: Bulls vs. Pacers

Take #535 Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls UNDER 202 (8 PM ET Friday, January 4)

The Indiana Pacers look to extend their winning streak when they visit the Chicago Bulls. Tip-off is set for 8 PM ET at the United Center where the Pacers are -6 point favorites. The total is 202.

Indiana (25-12, 21-16 ATS, 11-7 road) has won five straight, all against sub .500 teams and the Bulls fit that bill. The Pacers are coming off a 116-108 home win over the Atlanta Hawks. Six players scored in double figures with Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis netting 20 points apiece. Chicago (10-20, 18-20 ATS, 5-14 home) was beaten from pillar to post in its last outing, a 112-84 home loss to Orlando.

The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their past five road games and 5-1 last six overall. They’re also 14-6 ATS last 20 against the Central Division. However, Indy is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings overall and 1-4 against the number in the past five tussles in Chicago. The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their past six home games.

The UNDER is 24-9 in the past 33 meetings and has cashed in the last five meetings. Chicago is 15-5-1 to the UNDER in its last 21 home games including 5-13-1 this season. Indiana is 6-2 to the UNDER in its last eight road games.

The home team is 7-3 ATS last 10 while the favorite is 7-3 past 10 meetings.

Indiana has taken the first two meetings this season by a total of eight points, including a 107-105 victory at Chicago on November 2.

*2-0 with our member picks on Thursday as we cashed our only NBA play (San Antonio easily covered as a -2 point favorite against Toronto). We also nailed our only College Basketball pick as Michigan -11 took care of business against Penn State. Member plays are 6-0-1 over the past three days and all CBB selections are hitting at a 69% clip this season.

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Wednesday, January 2, 2019

Thursday, January 3 NBA Free Play

Take #520 San Antonio Spurs and Toronto Raptors OVER 216 (8 PM ET Thursday, January 3)

The San Antonio Spurs go for their 11th win in 14 outings when they host the Toronto Raptors. Game time is 8 PM ET at AT&T Center where the Spurs are -1.5 point favorites. The total is 216.5.

The game will feature the return of Kawhi Leonard to Texas who was traded to Toronto during the off-season. Leonard spent seven years with the Spurs but played just nine games last season due to injury. He was traded to the Raptors in exchange for DeMar DeRozan.

San Antonio (21-17, 22-15-1 ATS, 15-5 home) comes in off an impressive 120-111 victory over Boston. Toronto (28-11, 17-22 ATS, 13-7 road) got 45 points from Leonard in Tuesday’s 122-116 home victory over Utah.

The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings overall and 5-1 vs. the number in the last six meetings in San Antonio.

The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall and 0-4 ATS in their past four road games. The Spurs are 12-3-1 vs. the number last 16 overall and 8-2 last 10 against the Atlantic Division. San Antonio is also 24-8 ATS in its last 32 home games.

Toronto is 4-0 to the OVER in its past four vs. the NBA Southwest. San Antonio is 8-3-1 to the high side in its last 12 against the Eastern Conference.

The Spurs have won nine straight home games in the series with the Raptors last prevailing 83-73 on Dec. 28, 2007.

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BHS2020 Kansas hosts Oklahoma in Big 12 Opener

Take #821 Oklahoma Sooners +8 over Kansas Jayhawks (9:00 PM ET Wednesday, January 2)  WINNER!

Big 12 play begins tonight with a marquee matchup in Kansas where the Jayhawks host the Oklahoma Sooners. Tip-off is set for 9 PM ET at Allen Fieldhouse where the Jayhawks are -8 point favorites. The total is 150.5.

Kansas (11-1, 6-6 ATS, 8-0 home) is coming in off an 87-63 win over Eastern Michigan. Udoka Azubuike returned to the lineup following a three week injury (ankle) related absence with 23 points.  Oklahoma (11-1, 10-1 ATS, 3-0 road) has won seven straight but hasn’t played since December 21. They’ll be rested but could be rusty as well.

*Key Trends: The OVER has cashed in four of the last six meetings (4-1-1) in Kansas. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings overall.

The Sooners are 4-1 to the OVER in their past five games against a team with a winning home record. The Jayhawks are 5-1-1 to the OVER in their last seven vs. the Big 12 and 12-2 to the high side in their last 14 following an ATS win. Obscure I know, but helpful nonetheless.

Oklahoma is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five road games and 10-1-1 against the number in its last 12 overall. However OU is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 against the Big 12. Kansas is 6-2 ATS in its last eight conference games. The UNDERDOG is 5-2 ATS last seven meetings.

If you’re considering a cautious moneyline play on Kansas, consider that the Jayhawks have won all eight games at Allen Fieldhouse this season and are 116-8 in Big 12 home games during Coach Bill Self’s 16-year tenure.

Wednesday, January 2 Leans:

West Virginia/Texas Tech OVER 137
Butler -8.5 over Georgetown
Cornell +8.5 over Wake Forest
Tulsa/Houston OVER 135

Friday, December 21, 2018

BHS2020 New Pricing (and a #1 ranking)

As 2019 rapidly approaches, I wanted to say Thanks to our clients who made 2018 our best season ever.

From Australia to the Bahamas to Canada, from Nashville and North Carolina to Los Angeles and Long Island we made lots of new friends this past year. And I'm happy to say that we delivered steady profits to a majority of them.

In the sports investment business, trust and transparency go hand-in-hand. That's why I was so excited to learn about and connect with Pick Monitor, the premier sports betting watchdog in the country. They're a new company with a dynamic owner and in my opinion, on the cusp of going big-time. Click the link to see their leaderboard and check out the #1 handicapper. Modesty prevents me from mentioning any names.

As we look ahead to the New Year, I'm unveiling several new packages in the coming days but for now, we've got our standard 1-month service available.

Get 30 days of All-Sports service for $125.00. You'll get daily plays from the NBA and College Basketball, the remaining weeks of the NFL (including playoffs) and College Football through the BCS Championship. In addition we've got you covered in the NHL, Boxing and MMA and more. There's nothing else to buy as this is an all-exclusive package.

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Thanks in advance. Best of luck and Happy Holidays from the BHS2020 family.

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No Suprise: LeBron James is the most valuable NBA player when it comes to point spread

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