Purdue vs. Western Michigan: College Football Picks
Saturday, December 17, 2011 1:45 PM ET
By: Bob Harvey | www.sbrforum.com
It’s a Motor City showdown between the Big Ten and Mac conferences as Purdue battles Western Michigan in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. The two teams will collide Tuesday, December 27 at Ford Field in Detroit. Kickoff is slated for 7:30 PM ET with television coverage on ESPN.
The Boilermakers opened as a -1 point favorite in the college football odds but that number has risen to -2.5 at most shopping outlets. The total is currently 60 for what many believe will be a wire-to-wire shootout.
This is just the fifth bowl game in its history for Western Michigan (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) who won three of their final four games to finish third in the MAC’s West Division (5-3). They wrapped up conference play in style going 3-0 ATS scoring a combined 155 points against Toledo, Miami of Ohio and Akron.
They’ll be making their third bowl appearance in the last five seasons under Coach Bill Cubit.
Purdue (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) finished behind Wisconsin and Penn State in the Big Ten Leaders Division with a 4-4 mark. Their season was highlighted by a 21-14 victory over Illinois and a 26-23 upset of Ohio State. The Boilermakers will be making their first postseason appearance since beating Central Michigan 51-48 in the 2007 Motor City Bowl at Ford Field. Overall Purdue is 8-7 all-time in bowl games but has lost six of its last eight postseason appearances.
Plenty of points
Purdue’s defense will be in for a stern test against Western Michigan’s heralded spread attack which was 18th in the nation in scoring (35.6 points per game), 22nd in total yards per game (456.2 ypg.) and 8th in passing (328.8 ypg.). In a conference dominated by offense, the Broncos held their own scoring more than 40 points five times.
Leading the way for the Broncos is Jordan White who leads the nation in receiving yards (1,646), receiving yards per game (137.17), receptions (127) and receptions per game (10.58). White is also second among FBS players with 16 touchdowns.
Quarterback Alex Carder in just his second year as a starter led all MAC quarterback’s with an average of 312.2 yards per game. Overall, and against some pretty tough competition (Michigan, Illinois, Connecticut) he’s thrown for 3,434 and 28 touchdowns and has a 67 percent completion rate.
Defensively Western Michigan is allowing 28 points and 434 yards per game including a whopping 215 yards per game on the ground (5.5 ypc.).
Breaking down the Boilers
Purdue will likely use two quarterbacks Caleb TerBush and Robert who combined to complete 60 percent of their passes for 2,361 yards and 15 touchdowns with 11 interceptions.
Ralph Bolden rushed for 205 yards and three touchdowns over the final three games but is out after tearing up his knee in the regular season finale against Indiana. That opens the door for freshman Akeem Hunt, who ran for 100 yards on 10 carries against the Hoosiers.
Defensively, the Boilermakers boast one of the best interior defenders in the nation in Kawann Short who had 17 tackles for loss and 6 1/2 sacks. Overall the Purdue defense allowed 26.4 points per game and was among the top teams in the nation in pass defense allowing just 202.8 yards per game. However the Boilers struggled against the run surrendering 185 yards per game and an average of 4.4 yards per rush.
Trends
The ‘over’ is 7-3-1 in Purdue’s last 11 games against the MAC while Western Michigan is 6-2 to the high side in its last eight games overall.
Harvey’s Take: With all things being equal, I’ll go with the team from the stronger conference. Purdue’s defense isn’t great but they should get enough stops to win it. Take the favored Boilermakers in this one in your college football picks.
Good luck!
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