NBA Picks: Rockets & Lakers to go 'Under'
Tuesday, January 03, 2012 9:05 AM ET
By: Bob Harvey | www.sbrforum.com
The Lakers and Rockets meet for the first time this season and for the first time since their ill-fated preseason trade attempt involving Chris Paul and Pau Gasol. The two longtime Western Conference rivals meet tonight at Staples Center in Los Angeles. Tipoff is slated for 10:30 pm ET with television coverage on NBA TV.
NBA odds boards were opened with the Lakers installed as -7.5 point favorites with the total at 192. While the game's spread remains unchanged, early NBA betting action has lifted the total to 194 at the majority of sportsbooks. As the total rises, I continue to like the 'under' more and more. See why I am adding the 'under' to my NBA picks for tonight.
The Lakers (3-3 SU & ATS) are tied with the Clippers for first-place in the NBA’s Pacific Division. The Lakers are coming off a 99-90 loss in Denver on Sunday where they failed to cash as a +5.5 point underdog. The combined 189 points stayed well below the closing number of 199.
Houston (2-2 SU & ATS) is in a second-place tie with New Orleans in the Southwest division. The Rockets beat the Atlanta Hawks 95-84 win on New Year’s Eve getting the cover as a -1 point home favorite. Kevin Martin scored 27 points and Kyle Lowry had a career-high 18 assists for the Rockets, who led from start to finish. Houston has allowed 108.5 points per game in road losses to Orlando and Memphis, but has limited the opposition to an average of 84.5 points in its two home victories.
If you can't join them, beat them
That could be Gasol’s mindset when he takes the court against the Rockets. Houston wanted him badly and almost had him in a three team deal with the Hornets that would have brought Chris Paul to the Lakers.
As part of the proposed trade that was vetoed by NBA Commissioner David Stern, the Rockets would have received Gasol while sending Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and Goran Dragic to the Hornets. The Lakers would have sent Lamar Odom to New Orleans in return for Paul. Instead Odom went to Dallas were he’s already (or still) sulking and CP3 ended up with the other LA team.
Kobe hurting
After averaging 27.8 points and shooting 48.1 percent in the Lakers' first four games, Kobe’s numbers dropped dramatically in a pair of games against the Denver Nuggets. Bryant averaged 16.5 points on 26.1 percent shooting. In fairness he was playing for the fourth time in six nights on a bad wrist with a torn ligament.
Sore wrist or not Kobe is taking too many shots--again. Bryant has converted 12 of 46 shots in his last two games, while the inside duo of Gasol and Andrew Bynum made a combined 35 of 55 shots (63.6%) over that same period. Bryant is in one of his shoot first, share second mindsets and that’s never a good thing for LA. Maybe head coach Mike Brown can get the point across Kobe that sharing is a good thing—especially when your ‘bigs’ are shooting nearly 64 percent.
Lakers by the numbers
The Lakers are averaging 92.5 points per game on 44.6% shooting including 23.4 percent from beyond the arc. On defense the Lakers are fourth in the league allowing 88.2 ppg and 39.8 percent shooting, the top figure in the league. Not surprisingly the Lakers are 0-6 to the ‘under’ this season.
Bynum is back
In two games since his return from a four-game suspension, Andrew Bynum has been in midseason form. He’s second on the team in scoring with 23.5 points per game and leads in rebounding with 14.5 rbg. Against Denver, he had 29 points on 13 of 18 from the floor and 13 rebounds. If he keeps playing like that you’ll likely hear less and less about Dwight Howard coming to Hollywood. The hot rumor now has Gasol going to Minnesota for Kevin Love. Timberwolves officials are still laughing at that one.
Harvey’s Take: The Lakers have been a zigzag team for me over the years. I zig, they zag and I lose. This year it’s a new season and a fresh start. My goal is to stay away from any side plays on the Lakers and focus on the total. Tonight it’s the ‘under’ for me. Whatever your choice…Good luck!
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