Friday, January 5, 2018

NBA Free Play: Take Sacramento in Saturday Tilt vs. Denver

Take #516 Sacramento Kings +4 over Denver Nuggets (10 PM ET Saturday, January 6)

The Sacramento Kings look to spring an upset of one of their Western Conference rivals when they host the Denver Nuggets. Game time is 10 PM ET at Golden 1 Center where the Nuggets are favored by -4. The total is 208.

Denver (21-17, 7-13 road) is coming off a 99-91 home win over Utah. The victory helped the Nuggets pull to within two games of first-place Minnesota in the Northwest Division. Sacramento (12-25, 6-11 home) has been off since Tuesday when they absorbed a 131-111 spanking at the hands of the Charlotte Hornets.

Denver is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and 9-3 ATS last 12 in Sacramento. In addition the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four encounters and the road team is 15-7 ATS last 22 meetings.

The trends keep getting stronger for the Nuggets who are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games, 5-0 ATS last five against the Western Conference, 4-0 vs. the number in their last four against the Pacific Division and 5-1 ATS last six overall.

The Kings are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 1-5 against the spread in their past six overall. They’ve failed to cash in their last five against the Western Conference. So all of those trends mean it’s a no brainer play on Denver, right?

No and no. The schedule is the primary reason I’m fading Denver tonight. It’s not just the second night of a back-to-back but it will be the Nuggets third game in four nights. On the flip side Sacramento has been off for three days. When given that much rest, the Kings are 8-2 ATS.

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